Hide The Decline - Climategate

As Montgomery Burns would say, "Exxxxx cellent!"

Once again, you've outdone yourself. If you have some time, check out Hide the decline

NewsBusters -- Minnesotans For Global Warming: The ClimateGate Music Video
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/11/24/minnesotans-global-warming-mock-climategate

This is wonderful. Know you have served your fellow man.

Thank you!

Since the K/T (Cretaceous/Tertiary) Boundary 65-million years-before-present (YBP), widely varying geological eras have averaged about 12-million years apiece.

The current Pleistocene Era, conventionally dated from 1.8 million YBP, is characterized by well-defined cyclical glaciations averaging 102,000 years, interspersed with median 12,250-year interglacial epochs. These climatic regimes are apparently a consequence of global plate-tectonic configurations, whereby Earth's eastern and western hemispheres are separated by North and South American continents, interfering with worldwide circulation of deep-ocean currents. Since Earth is barely one-sixth through the Pleistocene, this pattern of regularly recurring glaciations will likely persist another 10 - 12 million years.

The latest Ice Age began c. 116,400 YBP and ended some 14,400 YPB. But Earth's "long summer" suffered a setback from BC 8800 - 7300, when a 1,500-year "cold snap" called the Younger Dryas regressed to Ice Time due to a rain of cometary/meteorite impacts from Sol's enveloping Oort Cloud. On this basis, our current Holocene Interglacial Epoch was due to end in AD 2000 + (12,250 - 12,300) = AD 1950.

Note, first, that major Pleistocene climate shifts are not primarily due to atmospheric or solar irradiation factors, but to astronomical and geophysical influences. Second, that Ice Time's cyclic regularity implies a climate-component yet to be discovered (does Earth pulsate, "breathe" by one part in 50,000 on its 4,000-mile radius?). Third, that regardless of other determinants, the Pleistocene will probably terminate on schedule about 12 million years from now, when reconfigured continental dispositions address ocean circulation patterns once again.

In 1960, Edward Lorenz of Chaos Theory fame posited that complex systems exhibit a "butterfly effect" rendering natural processes non-random but wholly indeterminate. Fifteen years later Benoit Mandelbrot linked Lorenz's Chaos with "fractal geometry" whereby "strange attractors" are self-similar on every scale. These tremendous insights make nonsense of "global warming" advocates' most cherished thesis, namely that Earth actually has a "climate" amenable to mathematical modeling and projection. Most emphatically, it does not, and by mathematical definition never can.

"Climate science" is thus descriptive only: Like botanical classification, it is solely an enumerative exercise because by definition there can be no experiments. Anyone pretending otherwise has either a recklessly self-deceiving viewpoint or a junk-science ideological axe to grind. Recent revelations show that Briffa, Hansen, Jones, Mann et al. are criminally liable on both counts.

C’mon you lazy British bastards, sign the petition!

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/HADLEY-LEAK/

Do you want to pay trillions of pounds for a fraudulent cause so that the rich fascist elite can be the only ones to eat meat, drive cars, and have kids? Next, the AGW zealots will tell us “NO MORE SEX FOR YOU PEONS. CREATES TOO MUCH HEAT & CO2. BAD FOR GLOBAL WARMING.”

Tell Goldman Sachs and all their greedy carbon-crunching bankers to PUCK OFF, beat them up with a hockey stick.

Very erudite posting on the Earth's long term climatic history. Even in fairly recent times , we had the Mediaeval Warm Period circa AD 800 to aboutAD 1400 when the Vikings farmed Greenland.
They grew grapes almost as far north as Scotland.
Then we had the Little Ice Age after that until about 1850 , when the River Thames used to freeze so hard, they could hold Ice Fairs on its surface.Thousands could walk on the thick ice. That is unheard of since 1900 and earlier. The Thames never ever freezes now. But it was not MAN who caused it to freeze....or caused earlier Mediaeval warming !!
Sun Spots are the main controller of the Earth's temperature.
Volcanic activity in Iceland in the 1700's also threw millions of tonnes of dust high into the atmosphere, cutting out the sun's rays and having a huge cooling effect on Europe . See www.iceagenow.com for records of very LOW temperatures and increased snowfall globally in recent months.

Just heard your bit on the Limbaugh show, pretty good.

"Hide the Decline" - Hackers can't read

Let me continue to clear up disinformation and misinterpretations here:

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

Phil Jones

"hide the decline" literally says to hide it using ACTUAL REAL data - hmm, what?

That's right, ice core and tree ring data from the other two research projects showed a larger decline than actual NOAA/GISS data, so the real, actual data had to be added in order to correct the INCORRECT decline shown by some of the other studies.

From 1960 on, ice core, tree ring, and actual NOAA temperature samplings were plotted to create a line graph. "Normalizing" the data plots from all three studies gives a mean average which can validate ice core and tree ring sampling data before NOAA records exist.

That was the entirety of what was being said in those e-mails and it is unfortunate the hackers were smart enough to steal e-mails but not smart enough to interpret the science being discussed.

Judson Parker,

In other words Phil did not say what he meant and did not mean what he said. Why then should be believe anything he has said, is saying, or will say? For that matter, why should we believe you? Especially since the words he uses can be spun to mean anything you want them to mean depending upon circumstances.

The words "trick" and "hide" pertain to a MAGIC ACT and have no place within the scientific method, it's data, nor the processing of that data. Its transparently clear there was deception and misdirection intended. He got caught.

It IS evil and also wrong.

I can read. Hide the decline means to do what you think is necessary to cover up the declining climate data. Judson, are you saying "hide the decline" means something else?

I've been walking around all day with the song Hide the Decline in my head playing over and over. Very creative.

Very well done! Hope you don't mind, I'm adding you to my blogroll.

Tell ya what I think:

The science has been settled. The debate is over.
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a scam...

Judson Parker

That was the entirety of what was being said in those e-mails and it is unfortunate the hackers were smart enough to steal e-mails but not smart enough to interpret the science being discussed.

It's you who has misinterpreted what's taken place. If the reconstructed (proxy) data is declining while actual temperatures are rising then clearly one of them is wrong. We shall assume it is the proxy reconstruction which is flawed as the reconstuction and temperature data also head in different directions in the pre-calibration (late 19th century) period. It seems as though the researchers were happy to use the treconstructed data because it had relatively low variabilty and showed the MWP to be no warmer than the 1940s. But that's because it's junk as the massive divergence between it and the observations show. For many reasons, you cannot use tree rings to estimate temperature data.

About 5 years ago I challenged Mann on this very issue. I told him that grafting the thermometer record on to a proxy reconstruction was dubious (I was being polite). Mann denied that this had ever taken place. Jones' email makes it clear that Mann was not telling the truth.

These emails are far more damaging than is generally appreciated.

Allow me to add that as a signatory of the Petition Project, many heartfelt thanks for your relentless, unwavering display of common sense. I have featured your video at my blog (with your permission, hopefully) and all I can say is Bravo, M4GW!

Cheers,
BD Pisani (B2)

Judson Parker, you are demonstrating how mind-numbingly dumb you are - seriously, welding together different datasets to hide the fact that the calculations from proxies don't match actual instrumental measurements is somehow "scientific?" Are you completely crazy or just awesomely stupid? Or do you arrogantly think everyone else is too stupid to understand what's actually being done?

Your excellent and funny video made it into major Russian TV news (see minute mark 2:36).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbTmtTA3t58&feature=channel

American Alex Jones also appears in the Russian TV news report discussing "climategate" (see minute mark 1:43).

The Russian TV news report -in general- is relatively critical of the "global warming/climate change" hoax (in non PC terms - even the Russian are raising the BS Flag on this hoax).

A full translation is offered (free of charge) per request (send request to my email address).

Thanksgiving Day Invitation to the Climate Change Skeptics

All the data and what models exist seem to indicate that we have reached a peak in oil production and a long steady decline is ahead of us.

This chronic oil depletion crisis happens to be occurring in parallel with climate change awareness, although peak oil has gotten much less publicity. This is serious stuff, yet the government barely acknowledges its significance because it has serious ramifications on the economy.

So, unfortunately, much of the public has no awareness of our petroleum predicament, and further, a significant number of people actively question the phenomena of peak oil.

Like it or not, a sizable cross-section climate change skeptics also happen to be oil depletion skeptics. There is no arguing this, as you hear it on radio talk shows constantly and you read about it in opinion pieces such as by George Will and a host of others.

So the challenge to the climate science skeptics who claim to be hot-shot statistics wizards — why don’t you “audit” those of us who post on http://theoildrum.com and other oil depletion blogs?

We are waiting, all of our data is open, we only discuss matters in open daylight, and we will kick your asses with our skillz. Seriously, we have to change our energy policy and soon. Whether it is due to a crisis in climate change, or due to an inexorable decline in easily accessible petroleum, things will change, like it or not. Here is your chance once more to prove someone wrong. Good luck.

And BTW, whatever data we uncover does not belong to us; oil reserve estimates are usually locked up in some corporate or foreign nation-state vault totally immune to FOIA requests. Double good luck in getting that. You will get to see how the people with the REAL money play hardball.

It looks like you have finished mopping the floor with the climate science crowd, and you should be ready for your next conquest. Yes, we are waiting for you, and we knew this day would come.

This message will get forwarded to Al Franken. Unlike you clowns, he is dead serious about these issues.

@twit

I thought I recognized you!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss

Normal Scientific Method:

1. Purpose
2. Background information
3. Hypothesis
4. Perform experiment
5. Observe results
6. Conclusion

IPCC East Anglia Scientific Method:

1. Conclusion
2. Observe results
3. Manipulate results
4. Insult all opposition
5. More manipulation of results
6. Tax the heathens senseless

Uhhh, Twit?

If the world's oil supply runs dry - then no more gasoline for combustion engines, which, in turn, means no "extra" CO2; means the "Climate Change" Hoaxers' problem is therefore solved.

So why does the Global Socialist Conspiracy need to tax the world's "wealthiest" (i.e. the USA) into an impoverished state of slavery now, when you all can just let the "chronic oil depletion crisis" run its course and bring about your ultimate goals of global commune-village (and getting even with the "skeptics") i.e. the new feudal dark age.

Extra plus - if the global socialist alliance doesn't steal all the USA's wealth - we "useless eaters" will have more money, meaning we will use up the oil that much faster - once again - solving the "Climate Change" Hoaxers' problems. Correct?

BTW: Perhaps you've missed the memo on the most current hoaxers' crisis: i.e. "the-Earth's-fresh-water-supply-is-drying-up" crisis; special emphasis on evil capitalists (somehow) exploiting fresh water supplies away from thirsty Africans".
"Chronic oil depletion crisis" is so totally yesterday dude. Catch up. Yer equivocation and obfuscation skillz are needin' some honin'.

I wonder if you, or someone else, could do an appropriate voice-over of this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1DEG6BWgp0
It's Monbiot pretending he's outraged to find out that "a few" of the pirates at CRU were crooked.

Excellent job on the "Hide The Decline," btw. I hear it's even made the Russian news. It is a masterpiece!

Regards.

You can not substitute real data for proxy data or vice-versa. That is the main problem with the whole idea of the "hockey stick" to start with. You either need to use proxy data or real data but not both. Proxy data is approximate. It gives people a rough idea of what the climate was like "around" a given time. Actual data tells you EXACTLY what the climate was like at an EXACT time. It doesn't matter how "good" the proxy data is, it is still not real. Remember we are talking fractions of degrees over centuries. A little error goes a long way. In the absense of real data to begin your model you MUST continue to use proxy data to end your model. Otherwise you have created something that is entirely unscientific. This is grade-school science theory here people.

So, regardless of whether tree ring proxies are or are not a good source of temperature data, regardless of whether it was warmer or not in the MWP, "hide the decline" refers to smoothing out the tree ring divergence from the instrumental record after 1960.

It does not refer to hiding any (existent or non-existent) downswing in modern temperature records, as some are spinning it.

You guys have so much talent! This is great! However, my favorite is still 3 Below Honey! That darn song is just stuck in my brain, too funny!

I would like to see another video with Elmer and Daryl, you two are just a natural!

Your video is being re-uploaded by others on youtube, robbing you of hits and possibly other benefits. See here for example.

Does anyone have any idea why youtube has removed this video form the most watched and technology and the favorites sections and effectively 'hidden' it?

Also yesterday google search would auto complete climatgate, now it does not, any ideas?

Now we know for certain that global warming is created by man .....and We also know WHO DID IT!

Testimony of Richard C. Levin
President, Yale University
Committee on the Environment and Public Works
April 3, 2008

"The Panel concluded that, in the absence of corrective measures, global temperatures are likely to rise between 1 and 6 degrees centigrade by the end of this century, with the best estimates ranging between 2 and 4 degrees."

Actually Richard, your a bit high but very close, it will be about 1.95 degrees (2.6 * 0.75);

The human contribution to global warming:

valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor

yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)

densall=densall+yearlyadj

I've been frequenting AGW alarmist blogs, and basically the message I've been getting is: Don't look, the science is sound.

"Q: How many climate scientists does it take to change a light bulb?

A: None. There's a consensus that it's going to change, so they've decided to keep us in the dark."

The WSJ editorial page.

not bad but global warming is still on and cap n trade is still going to happen, there is nothing you deniers can do about it, ahahahahhahahahahahahahahaha

This should win a grammy.

I've lived long enough to see it all. Went through the first (1970) "Earth Day" while in college, went through The Population Bomb, Global Cooling, Nuclear Winter, Acid Rain, the Great Depression of the 1980's, the China Syndrome, Global Warming, bird flu, SARs and Y2K when the world was supposed to end.

Other than selling lots of books and making lots of money nothing the "disaster hucksters" ever peddled stuck.

I remember an English class where to celebrate Earth Day we received a pile of papers and one was how we were going to be totally out of oil by 1990 with visions of grounded airplanes, ships drifting at sea and no cars on abandoned roadways. The English professor instructed everyone to write about life after oil and I remember being depressed for months after.

Make no mistake about it, from the wild madness in the professors eyes there would have been an automatic F if anyone dared write we wouldn't run out of oil in our lifetimes.

I never kept in tough but I would bet this professor has watched Al Gore's propaganda movie two dozen times.

Meanwhile new sources of oil are constantly being discovered.

Being older I guess I am doomed to being a permanent skeptic on everything.

Very amusing video. If you go to the web link, I've sketched out a "local temperature model" for Wichita, KS since it was a rural weather station that kept complete data since 1889. Since pseudo-scientists like Mann can't fudge local weather data, unless of course the weather station is sitting next to an air conditioner - I figured local time series would give more predictable results. This one shows a cold period for the next 25-30 years. I guess I should do the same for a rural station in Minn.

Based on Corbett report--very interesting visuals

Message to the Environmental Movement - Climategate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Hftsk4gWqI&feature=related

Climate Gate is YOUR fight
by DefendUSx November 27, 2009 12:54
Most Americans don’t even know about the carbon tax, and many of them, even if they’re skeptical that man is behind global warming, are unaware that if there ever was global warming, it ended at least 10 years ago and the Earth has been cooling for several years, driven by a startling lack of solar activity. They must be made aware, and they must have a fire lit under the backsides, to understand that they cannot sit around unaware and uncaring of current events. The carbon tax is a pretext to global government, which is a pretext to depopulation – genocide. This is no longer about being “into politics”. It’s survival. Push for an aggressive congressional investigation. Write to your local newspaper. Call in to talk radio. Motivate others to do the same. The media will not drive this story. In fact they will do everything in their power to suppress it. Despite their deteriorating credibility, they still wield incredible influence over the masses – in this case simply by refusing to inform the public of a scandal related to an issue that affects us all. This is our fight. Squad up.
http://www.repubx.com/

Twit, of course oil is a finite resource, as is every fossil fuel. However, the solution for a theoretical CO2 induced global warming is different than for dwindling supplies of oil. As in medicine, employing the wrong treatment can exacerbate rather than cure the underlying problem.

Once AGW is put to rest, nations can address dwindling oil supplies by better utilizing coal and nuclear power. Yes, we should invest in wind and solar, but only where they provide economical energy. Yes, we should move to electric or pluggable hybrid passenger transportation as battery technology makes them ever more practical.

Far more Americans support energy independent than support the green agenda. Where there is overlap, such as economical wind and solar energy, public support will be strong. However, carbon cap and tax schemes are dead unless true and transparent science can prove AGW is real. Until then AGW stands for Al Gore’s Whimsy.

I prefer Al Gore's Waterloo.

Hey, good news!

CBS News (yes, it's hard to believe) has linked to your video...

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/12/02/taking_liberties/entry5860171.shtml

NBC won't. Owned by GE, can't air any dissent. Wayyy too much money to be made off this...

Very entertaining as is usually the case when ideologues try to show up most of the scientific community.

It makes you look foolish.

I love this music video. You have summed up Climategate perfectly and memorably.

Curiosity question: what is the blue creature with horns and googly eyes? Did you just make it up, or does it have an existence outside this video?

What is the Claymation with the lumberjack and the singing tree called?

This is great! 5 stars. I have watched it a dozen times and I laugh every time. This is better than anything that Saturday night live or comedy central has ever come up with, (in part because they are to afraid to criticize Obama) Thanks for courage to tell truth in a funny way. I wish I knew a way to send a copy of this to everyone in congress. Please keep up the good work.

Oh look,someone with a sane, right down the middle approach covered this in the media:

http://www.examiner.com/x-29137-Tallahassee-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2009m12d5-In-the-aftermath-of-Climategate-its-time-for-another-look-into-the-science-behind-global-warming

Its worse than being reported, more than 1/2 of the scientist in the 2500 are in the 31,000. They just didnt sue to get their names removed like 2 of them did. This is a mess.

Elmer, if you did this it is incredible.

I have read the work at climateaudit and have to give you props for boiling it down in hilarious fashion, right down to the cherry picked 10 core samples that were picked to fit the pre supposed, desired hypothesis.

Just totally hilarious!

I know this is not connected and kind of mean, but doesn't Dr. Rajendra Pachauri the UN climate guy look like one of the Geiko cavemen? I wonder if someone can come up with a Global Warming or Climategate, "its so easy a cave man can do it" parody.

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"Hide the decline" does not refer to temperature changes. Instead, it refers to the decline in the ability of tree rings (over the past 30 years) to adequately reflect historic temperatures. The phrase can be found in this 1998 paper on the topic. (Page 5, first paragraph of Part 5.)

This whole campaign and song, while clever, is completely misguided and inaccurate.

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