Obama Says Fargo Flood Not Caused By Global Warming

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But that isn't stopping him from still using the flooding to push his Global Warming Agenda

By Elmer Beauregard

President Obama's chief-of-staff R.O.M. Emmanuel said "Never let a crisis go to waste" so today Obama is using the flooding of the Red River in Fargo to do just that. He now insists that society needs to take global warming seriously.

While admitting in a White House interview today, that the current flooding cannot "necessarily" be blamed on global warming, the President still managed to use the Fargo flood as an excuse to push the propaganda.

"If you look at the flooding that's going on right now in North Dakota and you say to yourself, 'If you see an increase of 2 degrees, what does that do, in terms of the situation there?' " the president told the reporters. "That indicates the degree to which we have to take this seriously."

IceCutter2.jpgWell Mr. President the Red River flows north into Canada and eventually into Hudson Bay but it can't because there is still ice on the Red River in Canada, which acts as a dam and won't let the water pass. So if it were 2 degrees warmer in Manitoba, probably nothing would change, but lets say it was 10 degrees warmer, then there would be NO FLOODING in Fargo.

So you are right, this flood has nothing to to do with Global Warming, it has everything to do with ICE not melting. It happens every spring to some degree, but it is worse after a harsh winter like this one.

So instead of using this crisis as an opportunity to push your Global Warming Agenda, maybe we should help Canada dredge the Red.

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FLAWED AGW CLIMATE PROJECTIONS MAY BE HURTING OUR COMMUNITIES

Reference recent news clippings about the flooding in FARGO, North Dakota, Minnesota and possibly in the future, in Manitoba, March 2009

For decades we have been urged by various AGW supporting bodies and individuals to urgently prepare for unprecedented global warming or there will be gloom and doom for the world. Yet only few years after the issue of their 2007 or latest report, exactly the opposite is happening. The entire planet is cooling and significantly since 2006. Instead of warning people to prepare for cooler weather for the next 30 years they are giving people a false sense of expectation of unprecedented warming. Many communities like Fargo, North Dakota may thus be unprepared for the real cold weather that is already here and that more may be ahead. They and the rest of the world are being told that only unprecedented warming is ahead. However colder weather will affect, crops, farming, energy needs, emergency planning, flood control and travel just to name a few. So the flawed climate projections may be doing more harm than good, because people and governments are being urged to go entirely in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons at a horrendous price. The carbon print is not a factor here. Natural variability may be behind most of our climate change.

So what is happening to our climate and what may lie ahead? The answer may be in the natural variability of our climate due to climate makers like EL NINO’S, LA NINA’ S or ENSO EVENTS and the regular variation in the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic surface temperatures as measured by the PDO and AMO indices.

Let’s look back at quite recent history of these real climate makers


DURING NEGATIVE OR COOL PDO AND AMO PHASE [1944-1976]

Number of La Nina’s
STRONG 2
MODERATE 4
WEAK 2
------------------------
Total 8

Number of El Nino’s
STRONG 1
MODERATE 3
WEAK 4
----------------------
Total 8

DURING POSITIVE OR WARM PDO AND AMO PHASE [1977—2007]

Number of La Nina’s

STRONG 2
MODERATE 2
WEAK 3
-------------------------
Total 7

Number of El Nino’s

STRONG 3
MODERATE 2
WEAK 8
------------------------
Total 13

Summary

During negative or cool phases of PDO and AMO, there are more La Nina’s and more STRONG and MODERATE La Nina’s than during the positive phases. This contributes to more cold winters and colder years during negative PDO.

During positive or warm phase of PDO and AMO, there are significantly more El Nino’s and more STRONG and WEAK El Nino’s. This is why there is more warming when the PDO is positive


Global warming resulted from the near simultaneous and simultaneous occurrence of the warm or POSITIVE PDO from 1976 to 2007 and the warm or POSITIVE AMO from 1994 to 2009. That is why there was extra warming during this past period and why it has now stopped. The PDO is a residual or after affect of ENSO events in the Pacific. Both the PDO and AMO effects may have part or all of their origins in the deep ocean circulation pattern called MOC or Meridional Overturning Circulation which flows through all the major oceans.

The current cool PDO phase is why we have had all the cold weather and cooling during the last 3 years and this may have directly contributed to the Red River Flooding of 2009 ,
Under typical La Nina conditions , polar jet stream splits into two paths , one going further north to Alaska and then comes south across the Canadian western and Prairie provinces bringing all the cold air to the western provinces and the US northern central states . The other lower branch of the jet stream brings extra rain and snow across to the states of Washington and Oregon and then to the northern US states close to the Canadian border where all the flooding is now happening.


Of 20 most significant Red River floods in terms of discharge or flow rates [1950m3/sec or more], 14-15 happened during NEGATIVE PDO. See the attached reference for these floods [http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/floods/redriver/table1_e.php]
As there may be an extended[ 20-30 years] NEGATIVE or cool PDO phase, there will be more La Nina’s and associated more snow and cold in the Red River region an the northern states. More floods are possible. There were 10 floods with flows 1800 m3/sec or more during the last negative phase of the PDO between 1944 and 1976, with 1950 flood being the largest at 3058 m3/sec. Looks like the 2009 flood which was spawned under similar negative PDO and near La Nina conditions is the first of those that may yet come.
The opposite of global warming is happening now since the PDO went into the cool phase or NEGATIVE phase since 2007. It was already dropping or cooling from the positive phase since 2005. AMO also went negative since January 2009 and the Eastern North American coast is starting to feel the cooler weather that this brings. For typical effects on North American climate of both negative AMO and negative PDO see the following referenced paper http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf+html

Thus there was global cooling for the last 3 years and this is likely to continue for the next 20-30 years as the PDO CYCLES run about 30 years for each phase .AMO CYCLE are less predictable but can run equally as long or longer. We will likely experience weather like we had in the 1960’s and 1970’s, cooler than normal. It does not mean that all years will be colder, as there will be some warm years as well, but the overall pattern for the next 2-3 decades may be cooler rather than unprecedented warming that AGW supporters claim.

Here are three excellent articles or power point slides for more recent analysis of how PDO AND AMO affect our climate.

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=167

http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork09/PowerPoint/George_Taylor.ppt#301,1,Slide%201

http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork09/PowerPoint/Don_Easterbrook.ppt

For a Canadian perspective on La Nina’s and one of the best web pages on La Nina’s go to the Meteorological Services WEB page of Environment Canada

http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/education/lanina/index_e.cfm

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This page contains a single entry by Elmer published on March 24, 2009 10:36 AM.

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